The economy of Jammu and Kashmir is known for its ironic characteristics. Being a mountainous region the agricultural potential does not go beyond subsistence. Climatic extremities with geographic remoteness limit the viability of the industrial sector. The services sector like the rest of the nation has been pacing up. The contrary facts include a low incidence of poverty in the region as compared to the rest of India. Low levels of inequality and possession of some or other assets by every household. All this comes in the business environment of fragility characterised by conflict. The major business shocks in the previous decade can be broadly summed up as (i) the 2010 agitation resulting in mass lockdown, (ii) 2014 flood, (iii) 2016 agitation, (iv) blanket curfew of 2019, and (v) ongoing sprouts of pandemic lockdowns since 2020.
All these features can be visualized through two lenses. The first and obvious one that of loss of economic opportunities. The second one not so obvious is the resilience that has developed among the people over time. Given the fragility in the region that has lasted for decades on a stretch, the businesses having the least shock resistance have ceased to exist and the businesses having the resistance to face the jolts and challenges have continued to exist.
The business viability in Jammu and Kashmir is focused on necessity-based goods over any other type be it non-necessity items or luxuries. Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a hotspot consumer economy feeding on the output from the industrialization process concurrent with the rest of the county. This increases the leakages from the local economy, boosting the rest of the nation. As a result, the overall growth in general and industrial growth, in particular, in a crippled form currently.
Every economy consists of the formal and informal sectors. On the same lines, the economy of Jammu and Kashmir can be bifurcated into the formal and informal parts when it comes to major economic activities excluding agriculture. Broadly the formal sector can be defined as the firms that are registered with the relevant government authorities and have fixed working hours and wages. This part of the economy is stark visible and open to scrutiny all the time. On the contrary, the informal sector is hard to locate and lacks features like formal registration, fixed wages and working hours, labour unions and formal channels of business.
State-level secondary data shows that the major economic activity that has continued over time in the formal sector is the manufacturing of insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides, and herbicides etc. The reason for the persistent survival of these units is the inelastic demand for their output. Jammu and Kashmir economy is predominantly an agrarian economy and lately has been turning into a horticulture economy. Given its association with the land, it is unmoved by factors like conflict and pandemics. Thus, the viability of this business in the region is the greatest with a fair possibility of supernormal profits given the excess of demand for the output as compared to the existing level of supply in the region.
This is followed by the flour mills. The demand for flour in the region is high as people habitually as a matter of culture consume approximately three teas a day. The tea in the region unlike the rest of the country is taken with either homemade or ‘Kandur’ made roti. This factor keeps the demand for flour inelastic in the region and the business turns out to be shock resistant. In the region, several households prefer to go directly to the mill and buy fresh flour than to buy the packed versions from the store. This business, though small in scale has sustainable potential in the region.
The manufacturing of allopathic medicines and allied goods is also a viable and sustainable business here. Given the necessity-based demand for the goods produced by these firms, no kind of shock impacts the demand for the medicines. In light of the harsh winter, a high-intensity conflict in the past and the current pandemic people in Jammu and Kashmir tend to hoard and stock medicines that last for more than a month. At the same time, the frequent change in weather throughout the year makes people more vulnerable to seasonal illnesses like flu and the common cold. This factor has always kept the demand for regular medicines high. The Kashmir region especially has a culture of having high-fat foods, dairy products, spicy and sweet foods all leading to diabetics and high blood pressure. These factors additionally contribute to the high demand for pharmaceuticals in the region.
The mountainous geography coupled with harsh climatic conditions increase the wear and tear cost of the transport goods. As a result, people have to take extra care of their vehicles. This increases the potential of the businesses to sustain that deal with the maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. One of the basic characteristic features of the local population, predominantly in the Kashmir region is owning at least one motorized vehicle per household. Given the experience of the locals with uncertainty and the frequent shutting down of the public transport because of the same has made the motorized vehicle a basic necessity in the region. The existence of more vehicles in a region points out the high demand for maintenance for the same thus the viability of the business in the region. Another business sector closely associated with the geographic, climatic and conflict-related conditions is the need and necessity of the Kashmiri households to have a permanent, pucca and owned roof over their head. This has spiked the demand for all the raw materials used in the construction of the house. Now that the construction process has modernized the demand for cement is higher than ever-increasing the viability of this type of business activity in the region.
Demand for power generators is high in the region because of the lack of regular electricity. Though Jammu and Kashmir has a very high potential for hydro-power, a number of technical and political factors have kept it from the Pareto-improvement. As a result, the region has been facing a severe shortage of electricity, especially in the winters. To keep the houses and offices lit and warm the demand for alternate sources has always been high. As a result, the viability of the firms manufacturing and assembling power generators is high in the region.
For the local youth seeking entrepreneurial ventures, the good news stand hidden as a blessing in disguise. The necessity goods industry has a huge scope of potential with the least risk of failure. The indigenous formal industrialization process in Jammu and Kashmir can begin with the startups producing the inelastic necessity goods.
While having more and different types of clothes is a luxury for people across most parts of the country, it is a necessity in this part. The frequent change in climate and four strongly different and influential seasons demand different types of clothes. Extreme weather in January declines to minus 10 degrees sometimes while summer goes beyond 30 degrees. The poorest of the poor need accommodating clothes. At the same time by tastes, an average Kashmiri is highly considerate about what (s)he wears. These factors have always sustained the viability of the clothing industry in the region. The demand is very high while the supply is extremely short. The clothes market of Kashmir has been the hotspot of producers across the country. Consequently, the importance and viability of this particular type of business can’t be ruled out from the high viability rating.
There are a limited number of places where the Willow tree grows. As a matter of comparative advantage, Kashmir is one such region. The highest demand for Willow wood comes from the cricket bat industry. However, the lack of relevant policy intervention from the government and a lack of market boost have crippled the sports goods industry in the region for a long time continuing to date. In light of the same, one of the prime business segments in the region is the sports goods industry. In the current state of affairs, the potential is very high but the current situation is way below efficiency. A relevant policy intervention can change the whole potential of this business and increase the overall viability of sports goods production in the region.
It can be concluded that the business viability in the region of Jammu and Kashmir is focused on necessity-based goods over any other type of good be it non-necessity items or luxuries. Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a hotspot consumer economy feeding on the output from the industrialization process concurrent with the rest of the county. This increases the leakages from the local economy, boosting the rest of the nation. As a result, the overall growth in general and industrial growth, in particular, is in a crippled form currently. However, for the local youth seeking entrepreneurial ventures, the good news stands hidden as a blessing in disguise. The necessity goods industry has a huge scope of potential with the least risk of failure. The indigenous formal industrialization process in Jammu and Kashmir can begin with the startups producing the inelastic necessity goods. … to be continued …
Specialising in the industrial process of J&K, the author is a Senior Research Fellow in the University of Kashmir’s Economics Department. She can be reached at email@example.com
Global eCommerce boom and local traders of Kashmir
A Structural Shift in the Market Preferences
Dhaar Mehak M
Tabeen J Wali
The global eCommerce market was expected to be worth a total of $5.7 trillion by the end of 2022. That figure is estimated to grow over the next few years; exhibiting the fact that borderless eCommerce is becoming a profitable option for online retailers. It is giving a market space to one and all with a potential or product to sell. Only two years ago, 17.8% of sales globally were made from online purchases. That number is again expected to reach 20.8% by the end of 2023; a 2 percentage point increase in eCommerce market share. This growth is expected to continue, reaching 23% by 2025, translating to an increase of 5.2 percentage points in just five years.
Economic projections and forecasts predict the global retail sales growth to rise even further and take up more retail market share. According to research completed by eMarketer and Statista, online retail sales will reach $6.51 trillion by 2023, with eCommerce websites taking up 22.3% of total retail sales. Although retail has had it tough since 2020, every national market covered by eMarketer saw double-digit eCommerce growth. The trend continues globally: Latin America (including Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) saw $104 billion in eCommerce sales in 2022, up 22.4% from $85 billion in 2021. The UK is forecasted to continuously increase by $85.7 billion (+42.88%) within the next years.
China continues to lead the global eCommerce market, accounting for 46.3% of all retail eCommerce sales worldwide, with total online sales just over the $2.8 trillion mark in 2022. It also has the world’s most digital buyers, 842.1 million, representing 39.4% of the global total. The US eCommerce market is forecasted to reach more than $904.9 billion in 2022, a little over a third of China’s. After China and the US, the third-largest eCommerce market is the United Kingdom, taking up 4.8% of the retail eCommerce sales share. The UK is followed by Japan (3%) and South Korea (2.5%). The top five eCommerce markets haven’t changed since 2018. Trends from eMarketer suggest that these markets will stay in the top five until 2025.
While the whole world has been witnessing the structural transformation and shift in terms of market transformations from retailing to online shopping, the Indian economy has been a part of the process. In light of the same, the Jammu and Kashmir economy has had an equal and equally growing participation in the same. The advent of the internet and the arrival of eCommerce technology in the lives of average Kashmiris have changed the shopping preferences and experiences of the locals. People no longer have to battle issues like vehicular traffic on the roads or wait in queues for long hours. Accredited to the growth of eCommerce technology, locals have been empowered to shop anywhere-anytime just at the click of a button.
However, in the recent past, there was no (or very limited) concept of eCommerce in Kashmir. Smartphone availability to the general public was rare. The masses were barely aware about the internet facilities and global communication channels. There was no idea of online shopping, online transactions, etc. With time and the availability of the internet along with the growing mobile phone penetration, eCommerce made its presence felt in the valley. However, due to slower internet connection issues like 2G and lack of awareness, people initially had apprehensions and thus were afraid of buying things online.
Tracing the roots and history of online shopping awareness in J&K, it dates back to the year 2008 when the mobile internet was making its headway into the valley. People were gaining affordable and available access to wireless internet. It was around the same time that after bearing a lot of hardships with sorting out the supply chains Flipkart became operational and function in the region. the initial years were tough and hard but the company stood steadfast. It took some time for Flipkart to cut through lots of hurdles alone and get to success. Being the only player in the online market in the region for quite some time it was a big deal to keep surviving and floating. But the outcomes were a success.
Steadily as people gain access to quality internet services and advanced smartphone technology the word spread. It was observed that doorstep delivery was actually a reality. At the same time, the quality of the delivery matched the promises of the website. The trust factor got built. Witnessing optimism within the J&K market, other companies like Amazon, SnapDeal, and other local online stores, etc., started jumping in to tap into the growing eCommerce market. The consumers got the opportunity of choosing from a wide range of products. Not only that, discounts and sales from time to time offer big benefits to consumers.
All these factors have been contributing towards a structural market shift. People from across J&K have been moving from in-person retail shopping to online shopping. While the consumers in the region have surely benefitted both in terms of utility/satisfaction and profit maximization, the retailers have been losing.
The J&K economy is predominantly characterized as a consumer economy. The characteristics of being a producer and self-sufficient economy have been limited and rather absent for a long time. It is the retailer of J&K, who has been at the losing end on account of the growth of the online markets. Retailing has been one of the most common business ventures of people across the region of J&K. Setting up of the shops and selling various items has been a known venture. People for generations have been relying on this activity. Lately, the structural change is challenging this segment of J&K businessmen and the immediate solution visible is evolution. These businessmen, particularly retailers, need to adjust to the changing market and make themselves competitive enough to compete with global online sellers. The only other option is to let the business supper, deteriorate and shut down.
Women shaping informal sector in Kashmir
The informal sector is defined as the unregistered part of an economy. In a traditional economy, it is assumed that every business entity is formally registered with the government. A proper registration of a business unit is associated with a number of economic, political and social factors. All the registered units to begin with are enumerated in the industrial census. It keeps the government and policy makers informed about the number and nature of the units. The economic and industrial policies are made and shaped in light of these numbers. Social welfare is decided based on the outcomes coming from these registered units. And the long run industrial and economic planning is carried systematically based on information and evidence from the ground.
Quite contrary to this established smooth channel of economic growth and transition, the developing and under-developed parts of the world have been reflecting self-curated unique trends. First of all, the formal sector has not been able to expand as expected. This has led to limited employment opportunities coming from this sector to the ever-increasing populations and youth bulges. As an instinct to survive, people are forced to find some or other kind of employment. This has led to the creation of and the growth of the informal sector across these pockets of the world. The case of India is one of the fundamental ones. The Indian economy is characterized as having one of the most unique and large informal sectors across the world. 80% to 85% Indian population is estimated to be employed directly and indirectly in the informal sector.
Empirics show that Jammu and Kashmir has reflected growth in the informal sector over time. On the eve of the creation of the welfare state in the region headed by Sheikh M Abdullah, a socialistic model of development was brought into practice. It was called, ‘The Naya Kashmir Manifesto’. Among other things, one of the main agendas of the manifesto was to set in place a public sector-led industrialization process in J&K. As such, all the industries established under the Naya Kashmir Manifesto are a-priori classified as the formal sector firms. The political instability and fragility in the region kept on increasing and the focus of the government as predicted by theory and validated by practice shifted to peace restoration activities. This gave a back-lash to the public sector lead industrialization process in the region.
Steadily people began to look for alternative means of livelihood and subsistence. This set in place the informal sector across all the pockets of the region. The instability during the decades of 1990s, followed by various political and natural shocks during the 2000s made people realize that each person must be skilful and must practice the same in order to keep on bringing in sustenance money. The Kashmir division is particularly known to be diversified in various types of craft. From Ari work, through Tilla designing, people have bene utilising their skills to cash in some money. The wood-carving, Pashmina making and many distinct skills indigenous to Kashmir have been practiced in the informal sector by both men and women over time.
Of late there has been an Information Technology boom. The 2000 AD has seen a drastic revolutionising of the world through the spread of the World Wide Web. Mobile phone penetration has made the world an accessible global village. The social media applications of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp have empowered people in a number of ways. People started off with sharing their pictures and highlighting their skills online on social media platforms. On receiving appreciation their confidence rose and soon people started to ask if some of their skills could be shared or used.
These platforms have greatly affected the economic well-being of the women located across various regions of Kashmir. Initially, women from different ages and social backgrounds strolled these platforms. Some of them enhanced their existing skills or learnt new ones online. This was followed by trying a hand at the commercialisation of the same, which in many cases has yielded a positive response. There are a number of examples that can be quoted as brief case studies in the present article.
The Instagram page by the handle of @makeupshakeupbynidanazir evolved over time. Nida has always been fond of make-up and lipsticks. As a child she always bought makeup and accessories from her pocket money. Applied the same on her dolls, herself, her cousins and her mother and grandmother occasionally. Over time she mastered the skill. From turning pages of magazines to learning online through YouTube etc. her skills enhanced steadily. It was her friend’s engagement and Nida offered to do her make-up. The outcomes were really appreciable. The friends decided to open up on online platform to display her make-up skills. The bookings soon followed and today Nida is a known name in the local make-up industry.
Saba married a doctor who lived in Saudi Arabia. Soon after her marriage, she moved to KSA with her husband. She always liked chocolates and began exploring the chocolates of KSA. Later in 2016, she shifted back to Kashmir with her kids. The kids and herself started missing the unique chocolates of KSA. One day Saba decided to curate her own. The chocolates turned out to be good. She shared the same with her sister and cousins. She was influenced to upload the same on Instagram. Steadily, the popularity of her chocolates grew and orders started to flow in. Today Saba is an established name in the curated and customized local chocolate industry.
There are innumerable other success stories which will be discussed steadily. But the underlying point of the present article is that the informal sector in Kashmir has been growing ever since the formal industrial set-up took a back-set during 1950s. Initially it was hidden and the returns were menial or limited. However, with the growth of the internet boom the women in the region have been able to harness the benefits and the informal sector has been growing steadily and sustainably. In Kashmir, this sector can be directly related to women’s empowerment and is expected to increase steadily over time.
The author teaches at the Department of Economics, Islamic University of Science and Technology, J&K and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Rural mart inaugurated under NABARD scheme
Shopian, Sept 20: National Bank for Agriculture & Rural Development (NABARD) has collaborated with National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) for extending the grant support to SHGs promoted by NRLM for setting up rural marts. These marts aim to promote and provide a platform for women’s self-help groups to market their handmade products.
The rural mart was inaugurated on 20 Sept 2022, at Shopian
Dr AK Sood, CGM NABARD J&K, SSP Shopian Tanushree, NRLM Reyaz Ahmad, and ADDC Shopian, Manzoor Hussain were present for the inauguration ceremony.
The mart will give numerous SHGs an opportunity to sell their homemade goods, including apparel, handloom and handicraft products, homemade food items, dry fruits, and more.
For a period of three years, NABARD has agreed to commit Rs 4.79 lakh as financial support for each rural market. NABARD will pay for the components, such as shop rent, salesman salaries, marketing costs, and other miscellaneous expenses.
Dr Sood, CGM NABARD, urged the female SHG members to use the mart as an opportunity for economic growth and to guarantee the continuity, quality, and quantity of local goods for both locals and tourists.
Additional Mission Director NRLM commended SHGs for taking such a unique initiative in the district.
“Rural mart to be run by female SHGs is the first step towards women empowerment in the district,” said Tanushree, SSP Shopian
Members of various SHGs from the district attended the event. Deputy General Manager NABARD Surinder Singh, District Development Manager NABARD Rouf Zargar, DPMs NRLM Uzma Mehraj and Irfan were also present on the occasion.
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