Dhaar Mehak M

The economy of Jammu and Kashmir is known for its ironic characteristics. Being a mountainous region the agricultural potential does not go beyond subsistence. Climatic extremities with geographic remoteness limit the viability of the industrial sector. The services sector like the rest of the nation has been pacing up. The contrary facts include a low incidence of poverty in the region as compared to the rest of India. Low levels of inequality and possession of some or other assets by every household. All this comes in the business environment of fragility characterised by conflict. The major business shocks in the previous decade can be broadly summed up as (i) the 2010 agitation resulting in mass lockdown, (ii) 2014 flood, (iii) 2016 agitation, (iv) blanket curfew of 2019, and (v) ongoing sprouts of pandemic lockdowns since 2020.

All these features can be visualized through two lenses. The first and obvious one that of loss of economic opportunities. The second one not so obvious is the resilience that has developed among the people over time. Given the fragility in the region that has lasted for decades on a stretch, the businesses having the least shock resistance have ceased to exist and the businesses having the resistance to face the jolts and challenges have continued to exist.

The business viability in Jammu and Kashmir is focused on necessity-based goods over any other type be it non-necessity items or luxuries. Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a hotspot consumer economy feeding on the output from the industrialization process concurrent with the rest of the county. This increases the leakages from the local economy, boosting the rest of the nation. As a result, the overall growth in general and industrial growth, in particular, in a crippled form currently.

Every economy consists of the formal and informal sectors. On the same lines, the economy of Jammu and Kashmir can be bifurcated into the formal and informal parts when it comes to major economic activities excluding agriculture. Broadly the formal sector can be defined as the firms that are registered with the relevant government authorities and have fixed working hours and wages. This part of the economy is stark visible and open to scrutiny all the time. On the contrary, the informal sector is hard to locate and lacks features like formal registration, fixed wages and working hours, labour unions and formal channels of business.

State-level secondary data shows that the major economic activity that has continued over time in the formal sector is the manufacturing of insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides, and herbicides etc. The reason for the persistent survival of these units is the inelastic demand for their output. Jammu and Kashmir economy is predominantly an agrarian economy and lately has been turning into a horticulture economy. Given its association with the land, it is unmoved by factors like conflict and pandemics. Thus, the viability of this business in the region is the greatest with a fair possibility of supernormal profits given the excess of demand for the output as compared to the existing level of supply in the region.

This is followed by the flour mills. The demand for flour in the region is high as people habitually as a matter of culture consume approximately three teas a day. The tea in the region unlike the rest of the country is taken with either homemade or ‘Kandur’ made roti. This factor keeps the demand for flour inelastic in the region and the business turns out to be shock resistant. In the region, several households prefer to go directly to the mill and buy fresh flour than to buy the packed versions from the store. This business, though small in scale has sustainable potential in the region.

The manufacturing of allopathic medicines and allied goods is also a viable and sustainable business here. Given the necessity-based demand for the goods produced by these firms, no kind of shock impacts the demand for the medicines. In light of the harsh winter, a high-intensity conflict in the past and the current pandemic people in Jammu and Kashmir tend to hoard and stock medicines that last for more than a month. At the same time, the frequent change in weather throughout the year makes people more vulnerable to seasonal illnesses like flu and the common cold. This factor has always kept the demand for regular medicines high. The Kashmir region especially has a culture of having high-fat foods, dairy products, spicy and sweet foods all leading to diabetics and high blood pressure. These factors additionally contribute to the high demand for pharmaceuticals in the region.

The mountainous geography coupled with harsh climatic conditions increase the wear and tear cost of the transport goods. As a result, people have to take extra care of their vehicles. This increases the potential of the businesses to sustain that deal with the maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. One of the basic characteristic features of the local population, predominantly in the Kashmir region is owning at least one motorized vehicle per household. Given the experience of the locals with uncertainty and the frequent shutting down of the public transport because of the same has made the motorized vehicle a basic necessity in the region. The existence of more vehicles in a region points out the high demand for maintenance for the same thus the viability of the business in the region. Another business sector closely associated with the geographic, climatic and conflict-related conditions is the need and necessity of the Kashmiri households to have a permanent, pucca and owned roof over their head. This has spiked the demand for all the raw materials used in the construction of the house. Now that the construction process has modernized the demand for cement is higher than ever-increasing the viability of this type of business activity in the region.

Demand for power generators is high in the region because of the lack of regular electricity. Though Jammu and Kashmir has a very high potential for hydro-power, a number of technical and political factors have kept it from the Pareto-improvement. As a result, the region has been facing a severe shortage of electricity, especially in the winters. To keep the houses and offices lit and warm the demand for alternate sources has always been high. As a result, the viability of the firms manufacturing and assembling power generators is high in the region.

For the local youth seeking entrepreneurial ventures, the good news stand hidden as a blessing in disguise. The necessity goods industry has a huge scope of potential with the least risk of failure. The indigenous formal industrialization process in Jammu and Kashmir can begin with the startups producing the inelastic necessity goods.

While having more and different types of clothes is a luxury for people across most parts of the country, it is a necessity in this part. The frequent change in climate and four strongly different and influential seasons demand different types of clothes. Extreme weather in January declines to minus 10 degrees sometimes while summer goes beyond 30 degrees. The poorest of the poor need accommodating clothes. At the same time by tastes, an average Kashmiri is highly considerate about what (s)he wears. These factors have always sustained the viability of the clothing industry in the region. The demand is very high while the supply is extremely short. The clothes market of Kashmir has been the hotspot of producers across the country. Consequently, the importance and viability of this particular type of business can’t be ruled out from the high viability rating.

There are a limited number of places where the Willow tree grows. As a matter of comparative advantage, Kashmir is one such region. The highest demand for Willow wood comes from the cricket bat industry. However, the lack of relevant policy intervention from the government and a lack of market boost have crippled the sports goods industry in the region for a long time continuing to date. In light of the same, one of the prime business segments in the region is the sports goods industry. In the current state of affairs, the potential is very high but the current situation is way below efficiency. A relevant policy intervention can change the whole potential of this business and increase the overall viability of sports goods production in the region.

It can be concluded that the business viability in the region of Jammu and Kashmir is focused on necessity-based goods over any other type of good be it non-necessity items or luxuries. Jammu and Kashmir continues to be a hotspot consumer economy feeding on the output from the industrialization process concurrent with the rest of the county. This increases the leakages from the local economy, boosting the rest of the nation. As a result, the overall growth in general and industrial growth, in particular, is in a crippled form currently. However, for the local youth seeking entrepreneurial ventures, the good news stands hidden as a blessing in disguise. The necessity goods industry has a huge scope of potential with the least risk of failure. The indigenous formal industrialization process in Jammu and Kashmir can begin with the startups producing the inelastic necessity goods. … to be continued …

Specialising in the industrial process of J&K, the author is a Senior Research Fellow in the University of Kashmir’s Economics Department. She can be reached at dhaarmehak@gmail.com