ABRAR UL MUSTAFA
Budget 2021 was paperless. It was presented from a tablet. Before the budget announcement, there were widespread speculations about an upswing in healthcare, fiscal harmony, education, vaccination, and joblessness. Economists had a hybrid sentiment concerning fiscal levelheadedness and the ration of resources. While some economists surmised in fiscal tactfulness, others foretold unpacking of spending spans. Some other economists thought that GDP transition, fiscal vocation and spending can linger; joblessness and health have to be dealt with. Monday’s Budget was an endeavour to stay balanced and cover all perspectives. It was triumphant to a tangible breadth. Yet, it circumvented many fundamental matters like Education, Employment and Tax.
The introductory and leading highlight was the outlay for the healthcare vicinity. From a minuscule allocation of 96,000 Crores, this sector is going to win a mega carton of cash as gigantic as Rs 2.23 lakh crores. This is a whopping upgrade of 137%. Hopefully, now common man will be in a position to avail of better healthcare services. We, however, will have to gaze and gawk how the policies are carried out in verity. Besides, this allocation is going to be bolstered in the future years as affirmed by the Finance Minister. Succeeding acuity of Monday’s Budget was Rs 35,000 Crore crate for corona vaccination. On a flip side, nonetheless, we have rationales to surmise that it may be beguiled. That is because, several sub-sectors—that are not directly healthcare sectors—have been accommodated. These are areas like Aayush, etc. This has to be scrutinized in the coming days when there is unmistakable translucence.
Our incomes are axed by taxes. We needed a robust and comprehensive financial policy. We need clear-cut employment, education, livelihood policy. The policymakers at the helm of the affairs should devise practical strategies.
There were a few exemptions concerning Income Tax Return (ITR). Those senior citizens who are over 75—and are earning only pension and bank interest—are exempted from filing of returns. This does not mean that there is any concession in tax for such people. It is just a respite regarding who has to file a return. Likewise, ITRs for the salaried class would be prefilled with the earnings from salary and bank interest. This would make the filing of return slightly easier. These are not concrete windfalls or exemptions.
One of the heftiest punchlines of Sitharaman’s budget speech was that of Fiscal Deficit. She announced that the Fiscal Deficit is pegged at 9.5%. She also added that this gap would be narrowed down to 4.5% in the years to come. An economic analysis, however, makes it clear that this would not be a cakewalk for the NDA government. She said that the government would resort to borrowings and would approach the market to fulfil the announced appraisals. This, however, seems unlikely. All governments so far have been unable to maintain a narrow fiscal gap. Hand in hand with fiscal discipline and balance, the government has shifted its gear towards spending. This is in line with what was predicted.
There were some statements in the Fin Min’s speech which neutralised each other. For example, she induced an agricultural cess over petrol and diesel. This additional cess was, on the other hand, neutralised by a reduction in import duty. This would leave the overall effect over the prices of petrol and diesel unchanged for consumers. On the same lines, an additional duty was announced over imported apples, etc. This is also unlikely to affect the prices of domestic produce. The overall impact of these changes is negligible.
A ’Bad Bank’ has been introduced. According to Sitharaman’s speech, it would be a new bank that takes care of the bad debts of other banks. It would be like shaking the balance sheet of other banks, accumulate all bad loans and put into the Bad Bank. For now, the idea seems promising. It would focus on the recovery and management of Non-performing Assets (NPAs). The other banks may carry out normal business without bothering about their bad debts. How constructive the plan may prove would depend upon the capital infusion, policy framework, execution and other details of the newly proposed bank.
Moving toward the disinvestment and privatisation front, it has been a lamentable budget. To the amazement of any sane economist, the government announced that an Insurance Company and two Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks would be privatised. In common parlance, it means it is going to auction its assets. Their reasons are not reasonable. If some banks are not in a strong position, it doesn’t mean you would sell them. You need to make a targeted and planned intervention and cure their rotten balance sheets. Deal cannot resue. Who sells assets, after all? In multiplication to this, disinvestment will be made in the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC). Where are we heading to? It is just like selling an aeroplane and buying a kite. It would fly for some time. But it would soon come tumbling down. Tough times are truly ahead. On the other hand, a layout of Rs 20,000/- Crores as a capital infusion to Public sector banks has been made. This is aimed at making them able to comply with the regulatory norms.
On the social impact side, some budget outputs would affect common masses. There is a vehicle scrapping policy. Now, old vehicles that are more than 20 years old—and 15 years in case of a commercial vehicle—will have to pass a check before they are allowed to ply on roads. If they fail—which is quite a possibility—you will have to sell it and buy a new car. Another option is to station it in a corner of your courtyard and keep it fresh for memory and display! Coming onto what a common man asks after every budget: What is dearer and what is cheaper? Well, gold and invaluable metals are now cheaper. TV sets, Washing Machines, LED lamps, Air Conditioners, etc will be expensive. A common man and a middle-class man needs food, shelter, clothes, some affordable gadgets. These are dearer now. However, fair news comes for those whose wedding is in the offing. Buy gold now or wait for some more days. The yellow metal is going to get cheaper.
A government is for the people. It must listen to the people. The public has been reeling under joblessness. The education of our children is in the doldrums. Their future appears uncertain and dark. Our incomes are axed by taxes. We needed a robust and comprehensive financial policy. We need clear-cut employment, education, livelihood policy. The policymakers at the helm of the affairs should devise practical strategies. They must not beat around the bush. Hope good sense thrives in the days to arrive.
The author is an MBA, NET, IBPS qualified. He works as Manager Scale-II in the Middle Management of a reputed PSU Bank. The views are personal
Global eCommerce boom and local traders of Kashmir
A Structural Shift in the Market Preferences
Dhaar Mehak M
Tabeen J Wali
The global eCommerce market was expected to be worth a total of $5.7 trillion by the end of 2022. That figure is estimated to grow over the next few years; exhibiting the fact that borderless eCommerce is becoming a profitable option for online retailers. It is giving a market space to one and all with a potential or product to sell. Only two years ago, 17.8% of sales globally were made from online purchases. That number is again expected to reach 20.8% by the end of 2023; a 2 percentage point increase in eCommerce market share. This growth is expected to continue, reaching 23% by 2025, translating to an increase of 5.2 percentage points in just five years.
Economic projections and forecasts predict the global retail sales growth to rise even further and take up more retail market share. According to research completed by eMarketer and Statista, online retail sales will reach $6.51 trillion by 2023, with eCommerce websites taking up 22.3% of total retail sales. Although retail has had it tough since 2020, every national market covered by eMarketer saw double-digit eCommerce growth. The trend continues globally: Latin America (including Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) saw $104 billion in eCommerce sales in 2022, up 22.4% from $85 billion in 2021. The UK is forecasted to continuously increase by $85.7 billion (+42.88%) within the next years.
China continues to lead the global eCommerce market, accounting for 46.3% of all retail eCommerce sales worldwide, with total online sales just over the $2.8 trillion mark in 2022. It also has the world’s most digital buyers, 842.1 million, representing 39.4% of the global total. The US eCommerce market is forecasted to reach more than $904.9 billion in 2022, a little over a third of China’s. After China and the US, the third-largest eCommerce market is the United Kingdom, taking up 4.8% of the retail eCommerce sales share. The UK is followed by Japan (3%) and South Korea (2.5%). The top five eCommerce markets haven’t changed since 2018. Trends from eMarketer suggest that these markets will stay in the top five until 2025.
While the whole world has been witnessing the structural transformation and shift in terms of market transformations from retailing to online shopping, the Indian economy has been a part of the process. In light of the same, the Jammu and Kashmir economy has had an equal and equally growing participation in the same. The advent of the internet and the arrival of eCommerce technology in the lives of average Kashmiris have changed the shopping preferences and experiences of the locals. People no longer have to battle issues like vehicular traffic on the roads or wait in queues for long hours. Accredited to the growth of eCommerce technology, locals have been empowered to shop anywhere-anytime just at the click of a button.
However, in the recent past, there was no (or very limited) concept of eCommerce in Kashmir. Smartphone availability to the general public was rare. The masses were barely aware about the internet facilities and global communication channels. There was no idea of online shopping, online transactions, etc. With time and the availability of the internet along with the growing mobile phone penetration, eCommerce made its presence felt in the valley. However, due to slower internet connection issues like 2G and lack of awareness, people initially had apprehensions and thus were afraid of buying things online.
Tracing the roots and history of online shopping awareness in J&K, it dates back to the year 2008 when the mobile internet was making its headway into the valley. People were gaining affordable and available access to wireless internet. It was around the same time that after bearing a lot of hardships with sorting out the supply chains Flipkart became operational and function in the region. the initial years were tough and hard but the company stood steadfast. It took some time for Flipkart to cut through lots of hurdles alone and get to success. Being the only player in the online market in the region for quite some time it was a big deal to keep surviving and floating. But the outcomes were a success.
Steadily as people gain access to quality internet services and advanced smartphone technology the word spread. It was observed that doorstep delivery was actually a reality. At the same time, the quality of the delivery matched the promises of the website. The trust factor got built. Witnessing optimism within the J&K market, other companies like Amazon, SnapDeal, and other local online stores, etc., started jumping in to tap into the growing eCommerce market. The consumers got the opportunity of choosing from a wide range of products. Not only that, discounts and sales from time to time offer big benefits to consumers.
All these factors have been contributing towards a structural market shift. People from across J&K have been moving from in-person retail shopping to online shopping. While the consumers in the region have surely benefitted both in terms of utility/satisfaction and profit maximization, the retailers have been losing.
The J&K economy is predominantly characterized as a consumer economy. The characteristics of being a producer and self-sufficient economy have been limited and rather absent for a long time. It is the retailer of J&K, who has been at the losing end on account of the growth of the online markets. Retailing has been one of the most common business ventures of people across the region of J&K. Setting up of the shops and selling various items has been a known venture. People for generations have been relying on this activity. Lately, the structural change is challenging this segment of J&K businessmen and the immediate solution visible is evolution. These businessmen, particularly retailers, need to adjust to the changing market and make themselves competitive enough to compete with global online sellers. The only other option is to let the business supper, deteriorate and shut down.
Women shaping informal sector in Kashmir
The informal sector is defined as the unregistered part of an economy. In a traditional economy, it is assumed that every business entity is formally registered with the government. A proper registration of a business unit is associated with a number of economic, political and social factors. All the registered units to begin with are enumerated in the industrial census. It keeps the government and policy makers informed about the number and nature of the units. The economic and industrial policies are made and shaped in light of these numbers. Social welfare is decided based on the outcomes coming from these registered units. And the long run industrial and economic planning is carried systematically based on information and evidence from the ground.
Quite contrary to this established smooth channel of economic growth and transition, the developing and under-developed parts of the world have been reflecting self-curated unique trends. First of all, the formal sector has not been able to expand as expected. This has led to limited employment opportunities coming from this sector to the ever-increasing populations and youth bulges. As an instinct to survive, people are forced to find some or other kind of employment. This has led to the creation of and the growth of the informal sector across these pockets of the world. The case of India is one of the fundamental ones. The Indian economy is characterized as having one of the most unique and large informal sectors across the world. 80% to 85% Indian population is estimated to be employed directly and indirectly in the informal sector.
Empirics show that Jammu and Kashmir has reflected growth in the informal sector over time. On the eve of the creation of the welfare state in the region headed by Sheikh M Abdullah, a socialistic model of development was brought into practice. It was called, ‘The Naya Kashmir Manifesto’. Among other things, one of the main agendas of the manifesto was to set in place a public sector-led industrialization process in J&K. As such, all the industries established under the Naya Kashmir Manifesto are a-priori classified as the formal sector firms. The political instability and fragility in the region kept on increasing and the focus of the government as predicted by theory and validated by practice shifted to peace restoration activities. This gave a back-lash to the public sector lead industrialization process in the region.
Steadily people began to look for alternative means of livelihood and subsistence. This set in place the informal sector across all the pockets of the region. The instability during the decades of 1990s, followed by various political and natural shocks during the 2000s made people realize that each person must be skilful and must practice the same in order to keep on bringing in sustenance money. The Kashmir division is particularly known to be diversified in various types of craft. From Ari work, through Tilla designing, people have bene utilising their skills to cash in some money. The wood-carving, Pashmina making and many distinct skills indigenous to Kashmir have been practiced in the informal sector by both men and women over time.
Of late there has been an Information Technology boom. The 2000 AD has seen a drastic revolutionising of the world through the spread of the World Wide Web. Mobile phone penetration has made the world an accessible global village. The social media applications of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp have empowered people in a number of ways. People started off with sharing their pictures and highlighting their skills online on social media platforms. On receiving appreciation their confidence rose and soon people started to ask if some of their skills could be shared or used.
These platforms have greatly affected the economic well-being of the women located across various regions of Kashmir. Initially, women from different ages and social backgrounds strolled these platforms. Some of them enhanced their existing skills or learnt new ones online. This was followed by trying a hand at the commercialisation of the same, which in many cases has yielded a positive response. There are a number of examples that can be quoted as brief case studies in the present article.
The Instagram page by the handle of @makeupshakeupbynidanazir evolved over time. Nida has always been fond of make-up and lipsticks. As a child she always bought makeup and accessories from her pocket money. Applied the same on her dolls, herself, her cousins and her mother and grandmother occasionally. Over time she mastered the skill. From turning pages of magazines to learning online through YouTube etc. her skills enhanced steadily. It was her friend’s engagement and Nida offered to do her make-up. The outcomes were really appreciable. The friends decided to open up on online platform to display her make-up skills. The bookings soon followed and today Nida is a known name in the local make-up industry.
Saba married a doctor who lived in Saudi Arabia. Soon after her marriage, she moved to KSA with her husband. She always liked chocolates and began exploring the chocolates of KSA. Later in 2016, she shifted back to Kashmir with her kids. The kids and herself started missing the unique chocolates of KSA. One day Saba decided to curate her own. The chocolates turned out to be good. She shared the same with her sister and cousins. She was influenced to upload the same on Instagram. Steadily, the popularity of her chocolates grew and orders started to flow in. Today Saba is an established name in the curated and customized local chocolate industry.
There are innumerable other success stories which will be discussed steadily. But the underlying point of the present article is that the informal sector in Kashmir has been growing ever since the formal industrial set-up took a back-set during 1950s. Initially it was hidden and the returns were menial or limited. However, with the growth of the internet boom the women in the region have been able to harness the benefits and the informal sector has been growing steadily and sustainably. In Kashmir, this sector can be directly related to women’s empowerment and is expected to increase steadily over time.
The author teaches at the Department of Economics, Islamic University of Science and Technology, J&K and can be reached at email@example.com
Rural mart inaugurated under NABARD scheme
Shopian, Sept 20: National Bank for Agriculture & Rural Development (NABARD) has collaborated with National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) for extending the grant support to SHGs promoted by NRLM for setting up rural marts. These marts aim to promote and provide a platform for women’s self-help groups to market their handmade products.
The rural mart was inaugurated on 20 Sept 2022, at Shopian
Dr AK Sood, CGM NABARD J&K, SSP Shopian Tanushree, NRLM Reyaz Ahmad, and ADDC Shopian, Manzoor Hussain were present for the inauguration ceremony.
The mart will give numerous SHGs an opportunity to sell their homemade goods, including apparel, handloom and handicraft products, homemade food items, dry fruits, and more.
For a period of three years, NABARD has agreed to commit Rs 4.79 lakh as financial support for each rural market. NABARD will pay for the components, such as shop rent, salesman salaries, marketing costs, and other miscellaneous expenses.
Dr Sood, CGM NABARD, urged the female SHG members to use the mart as an opportunity for economic growth and to guarantee the continuity, quality, and quantity of local goods for both locals and tourists.
Additional Mission Director NRLM commended SHGs for taking such a unique initiative in the district.
“Rural mart to be run by female SHGs is the first step towards women empowerment in the district,” said Tanushree, SSP Shopian
Members of various SHGs from the district attended the event. Deputy General Manager NABARD Surinder Singh, District Development Manager NABARD Rouf Zargar, DPMs NRLM Uzma Mehraj and Irfan were also present on the occasion.
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