Jammu and Kashmir is in the middle of what medical experts are calling the ‘third wave’ of Covid19. There has been a sharp increase in the number of Covid19 positive cases in the past one month or so. From 136 positive cases reported on December 19, 2021 to 5992 positive cases reported on January 20, 2022, the jump in the tally has been both significant and concerning. This has led to the imposition of a number of curbs across the Union Territory, including the closure of educational institutions for offline classes as well as the postponement of several examinations by universities.
While this increase in the number of positive cases has been concerning for both people and the authorities, the lethality vis-à-vis hospitalisations and deaths has been relatively very low when compared with the figures of deaths and hospitalisations during the second Covid19 wave when the Delta variant of the virus was at its peak.
Today, according to official versions, the bed occupancy is “very low” which is indicative of low levels of the lethality of the new variant called ‘Omicron’ despite the fact that scientists across the world have opined that its transmissibility is extremely high. Though there is no official data to support that the ongoing rise in Covid19 infections in Jammu and Kashmir is a result of the spread of the Omicron variant, nonetheless the rising levels of transmissibility are indicative of it. Truly, it is not possible for the government to go for mass testing for Omicron due to logistic requirements for genome sequencing, the levels of RTPCR testing for Covid19 have gone up significantly in the past few days, reaching as many as 80,000 tests/day on January 19.
Any complacency on part of people or authorities can have potentially dangerous consequences. The testing has to be ramped up. Furthermore, there has to be a close eye on the economic scenario and people’s daily livelihoods to ensure that the same are not jeopardised in any manner. Any decision on imposing lockdown has to be based on the levels of hospitalisations as against the number of daily cases, as some medical experts in J&K have already suggested.
At the public level too, the response to the fresh outbreak has been sagacious enough. Contrary to social stigma and ostracisation seen during the first and second wave of Covid19, when deaths and panic were at their peak, the situation today is far better. People appear to be handling the fresh outbreak with a fair degree of seriousness and maintaining the social cohesion that was seen in tatters in the first and second wave. That is a lesson that seems to have been learned the hard way at the public level, though it is important for the people to continue to mask up, maintain physical distancing and other Covid Appropriate Behaviour (CAB) to halt the fresh outbreak in its tracks.
There is no clear scientific data to suggest that the Omicron variant is going to behave ‘mildly’ in the near future as it is behaving today. That should serve as an alarming sign for both the people as well as medical experts and health professionals dealing with Covid19. There must be no lowering of guard whatsoever. The hospitals have to be fully equipped with Oxygen supply and ICU beds to keep them ready for any eventuality. Dedicated Covid19 hospitals have to be put in a ‘ready mode’ for next few months till the ongoing wave—believed to go in a couple of months from now—ebbs. Any complacency on part of people or authorities can have potentially dangerous consequences. The testing has to be ramped up. Furthermore, there has to be a close eye on the economic scenario and people’s daily livelihoods to ensure that the same are not jeopardised in any manner. Any decision on imposing lockdown has to be based on the levels of hospitalisations as against the number of daily cases, as some medical experts in J&K have already suggested. A reckless lockdown has the potential to hit the livelihoods of people which they are yet to revive after taking a massive hit during the first and second wave of Covid19. Additionally, it is important to explore ways and means to see to it that the education sector doesn’t get impacted any further. It has already taken a heavy toll on children’s education and their socialising in schools and colleges. All decisions have to be weighed in with ground realities and medical advice for a fine and balanced approach. Both people and government need to work together to realise these objectives.
